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Digging DefensesWorkmen are seen preparing trenches on the new defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. Dragon's Teeth"Dragon's teeth", anti-tank obstacles, are seen on the new defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. AdvertisementThe ToolsDrone view of the construction of the defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. Drone view of the construction of the defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. AdvertisementDrone view of the construction of the defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine.
Persons: , Kostiantyn, They're, Dara Massicot, Kostiantyn Liberov, crowdfunding, Emma Ashford, Putin Organizations: Service, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Getty, Russia, Stimson Center Locations: Kharkiv, Ukraine, Russia, Avdiivka, Kharkiv region, Washington
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewRussia's war machine has picked up momentum in concert with its increased industrial capacity and decreased Ukrainian resistance, but current Russian manufacturing capabilities and stored combat systems won't last forever, war experts say. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a major factor in its ongoing labor shortage, an issue that can affect weapons manufacturing. Many Russian citizens who might have worked key jobs have either enlisted in the military or have fled the country. AdvertisementThe increased capacity of Russia's defense industrial base, ISW said, is "capable of sustaining Russia's current tempo of operations" in the short-term.
Persons: , Forbes, Russia's, ISW, Dara Massicot Organizations: Service, Institute, Business, Street Journal, Royal United Services Institute, Avdiivka, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace's, Eurasia Locations: Russian, Russian Soviet, Russia, London, Ukraine, International Peace's Russia
War experts say Kyiv will need more precision-guided munitions to blunt Moscow's advantage in artillery fire. Western officials continue to warn that giving Ukraine more weapons and ammo is the "path to peace." The experts said Moscow's rate of fire will be sustainable next year "in excess of that number." Notably, Ukraine can no longer rely on its US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) or Excalibur artillery shells to diminish Russia's firepower, the experts said. "Weapons to Ukraine," he said, "is the path to peace."
Persons: , Michael Kofman, Dara Massicot, Rob Lee, Dmytro Smolienko, Lee, HIMARS, Serhii Mykhalchuk, Jens Stoltenberg, Antony Blinken Organizations: Service, Kyiv, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Foreign Policy Research Institute, American, Publishing, Getty, Artillery, NATO, EG, MGM, Tactical Missile Systems, Republican, Western Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Kyiv, Moscow, Donetsk Oblast, France
Russian maintains several advantages over Ukraine, including manpower and material, experts say. To keep Moscow's forces at bay, Kyiv will need to dig in and strengthen its defenses, they said. AdvertisementNearly two years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia again has the initiative, and its advantages over Ukraine are mounting. They're struggling as the Russian war machine gains momentum. "Ideally," the experts explained, "Ukraine can absorb Russian offensives while minimizing casualties and position itself to retake the advantage over time."
Persons: , Michael Kofman, Dara Massicot, Rob Lee, They're, Congress —, Biden, Elif, Dmytro Smolienko, Vladimir Putin, Pat Ryder, Kostiantyn, Lee, Massicot Organizations: Service, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Russian, Roman, Getty, Kyiv, Congress, American, Publishing, Getty Images, Pentagon, Ukraine Locations: Ukraine, Kyiv, Russia, Moscow, Ukrainian, Donetsk Oblast, Washington, Anadolu, Russian, Avdiivka, Kreminna, Kofman
Putin is largely ignoring the expertise of his military advisors, US analysts said in a report. The experts at the RAND Corporation said Putin has proved more cautious than many expected. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussian President Vladimir Putin is making key decisions about the Ukraine war largely on his own, without input from his generals, analysts said in a report published last week. "Putin [is] making key decisions largely on his own without substantial influence from the Russian General Staff," the analysts said in the report. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite this, Western countries have provided billions of dollars of equipment to Ukraine, including steadily expanding its capabilities with aid including advanced Western tanks, artillery, and cruise missiles.
Persons: Putin, , Vladimir Putin, Defence Sergei Shoigu, Dara Massicot Organizations: RAND Corporation, Service, Russian General Staff, RAND, Defence, New York Times, NATO, Associated Press, West, CNN Locations: Ukraine, Putin, Russia, Kremlin
Russian Army Gen. Sergey Surovikin appears to be in Algeria, according to recent photos. Surovikin is the mastermind of Russia's formidable defensive lines and fortifications in Ukraine. But as Kyiv's forces break through these elaborate fortifications, the mastermind behind them is nowhere near the action. The experts cited several additional photographs of Surovikin purportedly in Algeria, which were published to Telegram by Russian sources. Insider was unable to independently verify any of the recent photographs of Surovikin shared to X and Telegram.
Persons: Sergey Surovikin, Wagner, Surovikin, Dara Massicot, Yevgeny Prigozhin —, Russia's Aerospace Forces Sergei Surovikin, Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, Staff Sergei Rudskoi, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Metzel, subsume Wagner Organizations: Russian, Wagner Group, Service, RAND Corporation, Twitter, Institute for, Commonwealth, Independent States, CIS, Kommersant, Russia's Aerospace Forces, Staff, Russian Armed Forces, Armed Forces, Sputnik, Russian MoD Locations: Algeria, Ukraine, Africa, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Moscow, California, Washington, Yevgeny Prigozhin — Russia, North Africa, Russian, Sochi
Ukraine's air force has been able to keep operating by spreading out its jets among different bases. Russia has struggled to catch up to that dispersal, the top US Air Force general in Europe says. That success underscores the US Air Force's need to be able to distribute its jets and crews. Russia began the war with a larger and more advanced air force, including better radars and longer-range missiles. US Air Force crew chiefs perform a "communications out" launch of an F-16 during an exercise in Lithuania in August.
Persons: James Hecker, they've, Hecker, Danil, " Hecker, OLEKSII FILIPPOV, Justin Bronk, Bronk, Dara Massicot, Massicot, Stephanie Longoria Organizations: US Air Force, Service, US Air Forces, Air and Space Forces Association, Washington DC, Getty, Britain's Royal United Services Institute, Ukraine, Carnegie Endowment, International, Russian BDA, Air Force, Tech Locations: Russia, Europe, Wall, Silicon, Washington, Ukraine, Kyiv, Russian, Lviv, AFP, Moscow, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland
Top Russian military leaders will likely start hiding information from Putin out of self-preservation, a Russia researcher wrote for NYT. Those generals are "now even more dependent on Mr. Putin for their safety and positions," she added. Indeed, as Russia is at a critical point in its war against Ukraine, Russian military officials have shown more interest in sniping at each other. "In this atmosphere of suspicion and uncertainty, where prominent generals disappear and Mr. Putin is quick to blame traitors, self-censorship among top military leaders is likely to become more prevalent," Massicot wrote in a New York Times op-ed. But even though Russia is at a critical juncture in its war against Ukraine and the Russian army continues racking up losses, Russian military leaders have focused more on sniping at one another.
Persons: Putin, Dara Massicot, Massicot, Russia's, Sergei Shoigu, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Shoigu, Gerasimov —, Prigozhin Organizations: NYT, Service, RAND Corporation, New York Times, NATO, Russian, Mr Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Wall, Silicon
In the wake of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion, it seems as if Russia’s leaders are living in an alternate reality. Most strangely, Mr. Prigozhin — the architect of it all — goes between being ‘‘unpersoned’’ to apparently meeting with Mr. Putin to smooth over differences of opinion. Yet on the ground, the Russian war effort grinds on as before. Mr. Shoigu and Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov, Russia’s highest-ranking officer, will continue to conduct the war in an inept fashion. Retained by Mr. Putin for their loyalty, they are now even more likely to suppress negative information and present a distorted image of the war.
Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin’s, Wagner, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Shoigu, chatted, Sergei Surovikin, Prigozhin, , Putin, It’s, Shoigu, Valeriy Organizations: . Defense, Russia’s, Mr Locations: Moscow, Russian, Belgorod, Crimea, Ukraine
After 16 months of fighting, most of Russia's air force remains intact. And even though Russia has a vastly larger air force, other issues may keep it from operating effectively, according to two NATO air commanders. Royal Air Force Air Chief Marshal Rich Knighton at the Global Air & Space Chiefs’ Conference on July 13, 2023. Massicot and others say Russia's air force could still exploit its numerical advantage if Ukraine's air-defenses network falters, though other factors could inhibit Russian air operations going forward. "The Russians have recapitalized a fair amount of their tactical air force, and they've done a lot on the weapons front as well.
Persons: Rich Knighton, Knighton, Muhammed Enes Yildirim, James Hecker, " Hecker, Hecker, hasn't, We've, Dara Massicot, Johnny Stringer, Stringer Organizations: NATO, Service, Royal Air, Jets, Global Air & Space Chiefs, Conference, Air, British Defence Intelligence, Royal Air Force Air, Global Air & Space Chiefs ’ Conference, Space Power Association, YouTube, Ukrainian Air Force, Russian, Anadolu Agency, Getty, US Air Forces, NATO's Allied Air Command, Aircraft, Russian Ministry of Defense, Rand Corporation, British Air Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Ukrainian, London, Donetsk, Europe, Poland, Romania, Russian, Bakhmut, Kherson, Massicot
Russia has been imprisoning Ukrainian civilians since the early months of the invasion. A document shows that Moscow plans to build 25 more prison camps in Ukraine by 2026, per AP. War analysts previously noted how Russia is prepared for a protracted war. The plan is another reflection of what war analysts have described as Russia's vision for a prolonged war after Ukrainian resistance dashed Moscow's hope for a swift victory. The think tank also added that a prolonged war is a narrative that Russia would want to push to discourage the West's support for Ukraine.
Persons: Dara Massicot, German Intelligence Agency Bruno Kahl, Dmitry Medvedev, Medvedev, Mark Milley Organizations: Service, Russia, Associated Press, RAND Corporation, German Intelligence Agency, Russian Security Council, Ukraine, Kyiv, US, Chiefs, Staff Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Vietnam, Kyiv, Washington
Early Tuesday, a Ukrainian missile slammed into a hotel in the coastal town of Berdyansk that had been taken over by the Russian military. ‘Colossal support’Russian military bloggers have suggested that both Tsokov and Popov were capable soldiers who inspired loyalty among their men. Tsokov, 51, appears to have been a rising star in the Russian military. Senior Russian general, Ivan Popov, raised questions about the mass deaths and injuries of Russian military personnel. The loss of more capable commanders is another sign that Russia’s “special military operation” is looking less special by the week.
Persons: CNN —, Oleg Tsokov, Tsokov, Ivan Popov, Popov, Valery Gerasimov, vilely, Sergei Shoigu, , Vladimir Putin, Rybar, “ Popov, General Popov, , Wagner, Oleg Surovikin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Surovikin, Prigozhin, Defense Andrei Kartapolov, Kartapolov, specter, OGPU –, Gerasimov, “ alarmism, Shoigu, George Hall, Russia Dara Massicot, Tweeting, Massicot, ” Rybar, upbraided, viscerally, Putin Organizations: CNN, Ukraine –, Southern Military District, Arms Army, Kremlin Press, Major, Institute for, Ukrainian, of Defense, Kremlin, Russia’s Aerospace Forces, State, Defense, Defense Ministry, Senior, Ministry of Defense, Surovik, George Hall of, RAND Corporation, Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian Armed Forces Locations: Ukraine, Ukrainian, Berdyansk, Russian, Svatove, frontlines, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Senior Russian, St, Russia, Vuhledar
Shifting the bulk of its military to Ukraine has made Russia vulnerable elsewhere, experts say. The war has become a nearly all-consuming effort for Russia's military. Units from across Russia are now "bearing the brunt" of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that kicked off in early June, the British Ministry of Defense said in an update published Thursday. "The way Russia is accepting risks across Eurasia highlights how the war has dislocated Russia's established national strategy," the ministry said. "Russia has really made itself vulnerable globally," Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the Rand Corporation think tank, said in April.
Persons: , Ukraine's, Ben Wallace, Muhammed Enes Yildirim, Dara Massicot, Adm, Tony Radakin, Radakin, ANATOLII STEPANOV, Christopher Cavoli, Cavoli, we've, Justin Bronk, They'd, Bronk, they're Organizations: Service, British Ministry of Defense, Russian, Eastern Military District, 61st Naval Infantry Brigade, NATO, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Arms Army, Rand Corporation, US European Command, Royal United Services Institute Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia, Belarus, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Crimea, Velyka, Donetsk Oblast, Bakhmut, Moscow, Russian, Oskol, Ukraine's Kharkiv, AFP, British, Kaliningrad, Finland
Absent from view too is General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed "General Armageddon" by the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. Rybar, an influential channel on the Telegram messaging application run by a former Russian defence ministry press officer, said a purge was underway. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov attend an annual meeting of the Defence Ministry Board in Moscow, Russia, December 21, 2022. Dara Massicot, an expert in the Russian military at the RAND Corporation think-tank, said that something looked odd about the video, in which Surovikin has an automatic weapon on his lap. "Surovikin (is) a brute but also one of the more capable Russian commanders," Freedman said on Twitter.
Persons: Putin, Sergei Shoigu, Vladimir Putin, Valery Gerasimov, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Gerasimov, Sergei Surovikin, Surovikin, Dmitry Peskov, Wagner, Rybar, Staff of Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, Mikhail Kuravlev, Prigozhin, Michael Kofman, Viktor Zolotov, Shoigu, Dara Massicot, He’s, he’s, Alexei Venediktov, vilifying Shoigu, Lawrence Freedman, Freedman, Andrew Osborn, Mike Collett, White, Lisa Shumaker, Angus MacSwan, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: New York Times, Wednesday, Staff, Reuters, Moscow Times, Staff of Russian Armed Forces, Defence Ministry Board, Sputnik, REUTERS, Carnegie Endowment, Twitter, National Guard, Moscow, Tuesday, RAND Corporation, Western, King's College London, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Surovikin, Russia, Russian, Moscow, Ukrainian, Kremlin, Moscow's, Lefortovo, Chechnya, Syria
It comes as Russia's military is tied down in Ukraine and less able to respond to crises elsewhere. Those questions come as a Ukrainian offensive bears down on Russia's military, which since late last year has been replenishing its forces in Ukraine with aging equipment and under-trained personnel. These efforts have bolstered Russian units in Ukraine but left the Russian military more vulnerable elsewhere and undermined its ability to respond to other crises, experts say. Russia's military has tried to show it still has muscles to flex, mostly with air and naval forces that are largely undamaged by the war. Russian troops board a military aircraft on their way to Kazakhstan in January 2022.
Persons: Wagner, it's, Putin, , Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Russia's, Dara Massicot, Maxym, I've, there's, Massicot, Gorshkov, Kassym, Tokayev, Mark Galeotti, Galeotti, It's, Prigozhin, SERGEI GUNEYEV, Angela, John Kirby, Kirby Organizations: Service, Wagner Group, Rand Corporation, Georgetown University, Getty, Russia's, Fleet, Northern Fleet, Iranian Army, Anadolu Agency, Moscow, Russian Defense Ministry Press, Kremlin, SPUTNIK, Center for, East European Studies, Brookings Institution, National Security Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Russian, Ukraine's Kharkiv, Siberia, Norway, Georgia, Central Asia, Russia, Syria, Kazakhstan, Russia's, Armenia, Tajikistan
Russian defense chief Shoigu appeared in a video released after the Wagner Group's armed rebellion. Moscow published the video purportedly showing Shoigu in Ukraine, though its unclear when it was filmed. Some Russian milblogger channels have arrived at the same conclusion, that the video of Shoigu was older footage. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the notorious Wagner mercenary organization, has long criticized Moscow's military leadership over its handling of the war in Ukraine. Russia denied the allegations, but it didn't stop Prigozhin from openly encouraging his mercenaries to take up arms against the defense ministry in open rebellion.
Persons: Shoigu, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin's, , Sergei Shoigu, General Yevgeny Nikiforov, Yevgeny Nikiforov's, Sergei Shoigu's, Jimmy Rushton, Mark Krutov, Yevgeny Nikiforov, I'm, Dara Massicot, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Prigozhin, Valery Gerasimov, Russia's, Moscow's, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Don, Stringer, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, he's, Antony Blinken, Jens Stoltenberg Organizations: Service, Russian Defense, Wagner Group, Russian Ministry of Defence, Twitter, Radio Free, Radio Liberty's, Russian Ministry of Defense, RAND Corporation, Prigozhin Press Service, Prigozhin Press, Associated Press, Don REUTERS, Stringer Western, ABC News, NATO, Ukraine Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Russian, Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty's Russia, Shoigu, Rostov, Don, Russia, Belarus, Ukrainian, Kyiv
Moldova, next door to Ukraine, has been under pressure from Russia for decades. Amid the war in Ukraine, Kyiv and Western officials say Moscow is stepping up its interference. As a result of a 1992 war between Moldovan forces and Transnistrian separatists, Russian troops entered the breakaway region to support the separatists. Following that war, Transnistria gained a form of autonomy. SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty ImagesMoldova declared a state of emergency after Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, and it remains in effect.
Persons: , that's, John Sullivan, SERGUEI VORONIN, Chișinău, Maia Sandu, Diego Herrera Carcedo, SERGEI GAPON, Moldova's, John Kirby, Kirby, Pierre Crom, Thomas de Waal, Dara Massicot, Massicot, Jamar Marcel Pugh, Sandu, Ursula von der Leyen, Constantine Atlamazoglou Organizations: Service, Georgetown University, Getty, Moldovan, NATO, EU, Anadolu Agency, Getty Images Moldova, White House National Security Council, Carnegie, RAND Corporation, US Army National Guard, European Commission, Fletcher School of Law, LinkedIn Locations: Moldova, Ukraine, Russia, Transnistria, Kyiv, Western, Moscow, Soviet Union, Romania, Europe, Baltic, Poland, Bender, Transnistrian, Chisinau, May, Lithuania, Sweden, AFP, Russian, Carnegie Europe, NATO, Bulgaria
Russia's navy has had little involvement in Ukraine, losing only one major warship so far. Russia's military closed off parts of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan to practice firing torpedoes, missiles, and artillery. Russia's navy received heavy investment in the 2000s, as President Vladimir Putin rebuilt the military after a decade of post-Soviet decay. While it still struggles with its larger ships, Russia's navy now has dozens of frigates and corvettes armed with effective long-range weapons. Russian navy corvette Gremyashchiy, front, and the frigate Admiral Kasatonov in St Petersburg in July 2019.
While its military struggles on the ground in Ukraine, Russia has leaned heavily on aerial attacks. It has also hit bases on the Crimean Peninsula that support the Black Sea Fleet and its missile-equipped warships. The Black Sea Fleet has been reinforced by ships from Russia's Caspian Flotilla, which arrived through a canal connecting the seas. Though the Black Sea Fleet has been able to blockade Ukrainian ports, Ukraine has scored significant victories against it. In December, Ukrainian drones blasted two air bases east of Moscow — hundreds of miles from the Ukrainian border.
Recent changes to Russian conscription law indicate Moscow is preparing for a long war in Ukraine. Beyond a need for manpower, the changes may reflect the Kremlin's embrace of more heavy-handed rule. But Russian leaders appear to preparing for a long and bloody fight, judging by a series of new measures related to military conscription. The Russian government is "methodically stepping through a process to go over to a higher readiness and protracted war," Massicot added. Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications.
Russia's air force has had a limited role in Ukraine, despite numerical and technological advantages. Russia has held its air force back largely because of Ukraine's effective air-defense network. Which raises the question: If Ukrainian air defenses fade, will the Russian Air Force — known as the VKS — finally become a decisive factor in the war? Ukraine's small but resourceful air force put up spirited resistance that mitigated Russia's numerical and technological superiority, however. "So the air force, I think, would definitely be committed much more heavily if they had a chance."
Russian forces used a tank to blast their way into a building in the war-torn city of Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops in the building left and blew it up to trap them, The New York Times reported. He said in one instance, Russian troops used a tank to blast through the walls of an apartment building held by Kyiv's forces. He told the Times the Ukrainians placed explosives around the building, quickly left, and the blew up the apartment while the Russians were still inside. Captured German soldiers, make their way in the bitter cold through the ruins of Stalingrad, Russia, in 1943.
Russia and Ukraine both say Bakhmut, a city in Ukraine, is the site of their deadliest fighting. An expert on Russia's military likened it to Stalingrad, but without the same level of significance. But at least Stalingrad was an industrial city, a major inland port on the Volga River that was a vital transportation artery for Soviet war production and home to a half-million people. Western experts are struggling to understand why both sides are pouring enormous resources — and prestige — into the Battle of Bakhmut. "It's like becoming like a Stalingrad except for without the importance of Stalingrad."
Crimea is poised to be the next big battlefield, and one that could decide the Ukraine war. "The decisive terrain for this war is Crimea," Ben Hodges, a former commander of US Army Europe, told Insider. Ukraine will "never be safe or secure" if Russia retains control of Crimea, Hodges siad. The fight to retake Crimea could be extremely bloody, in a war that's already led to massive casualties for both sides. President of UkraineUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pledged to expel Russian forces out of all occupied territory, including Crimea.
Russia appointed a new general in charge of Ukraine war, replacing predecessor after just 3 months. The ministry described Gerasimov not as a simple replacement, but as occupying a new role with even greater oversight over Russia's war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov in Moscow, Russia, on December 21, 2020. McGlynn said Gerasimov's appointment "is definitely a commitment to keep fighting. McGlynn said Gerasimov's appointment "leaves him in an impossible situation and one that is only likely to get worse."
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